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Where do financial institutions fit into the Just Transition?
The UNFCCC meetings in Bonn that ended recently resulted in some modest optimism, with the release of an informal note on Just Transitions by the co-chairs to be further discussed at COP 30 in Brazil in November 2025. Progress has been relatively slow on the United Arab Emirates Just Transition Work Programme, but it fills an important gap in the global climate transition that completements efforts by financial institutions, especially at the domestic level.
The informal Just Transition draft covers several important topics. It connects the emissions reduction required by the Paris Agreement with corresponding efforts to ensure the costs and opportunities are shared equitably as countries chart out their individual pathways. It also acknowledges that making sure the process by which countries develop their own just transition pathways is effective, inclusive and participatory.
Meanwhile, the Just Transition Finance Lab highlights ways in which the country-specific nature of just transitions can allow for substantial progress through ‘closer-to-the-ground’ monitoring. This research builds on efforts underway within the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group to highlight how emerging & developing countries are incorporating monitoring through domestic policymaking channels. This supplements the measurement of progress with metrics showing whether the process and outcomes are supporting just transition outcomes.
Domestic efforts provide a more localised approach while connecting internationally through climate finance, business ownership, and trade links. The financial sector, through its own transition planning and engagement with its customers, can complement efforts by governments and providers of climate finance by adding a Just Transition focus itself.
This is not just a problem that can be solved through a technical solution to collect the right data and make sure it is accurate and used in an effective way. A Just Transition requires a much more intentional effort to build trust with customers and other stakeholders, which is most effectively built up over time through repeated (even if small) interactions with stakeholders.
While the financial sector works with its customers and stakeholders (of both FIs and their customers) to cultivate the relationships and trust needed in the just transition, they should align with the direction of travel both domestically and globally.
Banks in the GCC region are tackling climate transition risk, but it remains a ‘work-in-progress’
Standard & Poor’s Ratings has this week addressed frequently asked questions about climate transition risk facing banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, describing banks’ efforts in measuring the risk to date as a ‘work-in-progress’. On financed emissions, like those covered by RFI Foundation’s financed emissions database, S&P highlighted that “banks' difficulties with measuring scope 3 emissions come up regularly in our discussions”. This is understandable because emissions measurement is an almost universal challenge for banks globally.
This context of data gaps was a motivating factor for the way RFI undertook its financed emissions work, which is catalogued in an open-access database with five years of data covering banks and financial markets in the six GCC countries and five other OIC markets. The financial sector plays a key role in financing the transition and will need substantial new capabilities beyond what they have now to understand the many types of climate transition risk they face from the activities they finance.
How transition finance could eclipse sustainability-linked financing
One of the consequential outcomes of COP 28 was the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels in order to reach the global climate goals of limiting warming to 1.5˚ C, which requires reaching Net Zero by 2050. After COP 28 ended there has been a widespread effort to determine the best way to achieve that transition, for which finance plays a key role.
Climate Disclosures Heighten The Risk To Companies That Aren’t Planning Financing For Their Transitions Today
High-emissions companies already face less appetite from banks to lend to them, according to a study by BIS researchers using data on Japanese banks
Greater regulation on climate disclosures, especially for companies in Islamic markets, is going to increase the scopes of emissions that impact bank evaluations of companies’ climate risks
Increasing physical risk outcomes that hurt banks’ financial strength will amplify the impact of more and better disclosures of emissions