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Islamic finance could provide a way to make transition finance adaptable as economies transform
Many companies are responding to the urgency of transitioning their business but are running into challenges. One barrier they face is that it can be harder or more costly to access finance if they are penalised for using debt-based finance for transition-related investments.
Transition finance is a critical part of the global transition that will be needed to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and the global push towards Net Zero by 2050. Despite the big financing opportunity that the climate transition represents, debt-based financial markets are still approaching this with a short-term mindset that can impose barriers to transition finance.
Companies that diversify their revenue to other sources are likely to be far better positioned than those which do not, but financial incentives in debt markets through credit ratings counteract and could lead to companies increasing their risk through inaction in pursuit of short-term gains.
Companies need time to pivot their business strategies towards less transition-exposed sources of revenue and should not be penalised for making long-term investments that reduce their transition risk. Investors and banks, as well as other stakeholders, including workers and local communities, will pay the price if credit ratings provide the wrong financial incentives related to transition risk.
Making progress at restructuring the debt-based financing for one link in the value chain can help to address the economic, environmental and social costs from continuing the status quo towards a disorderly transition. However, the rigidities introduced by debt-based finance may not fully alleviate risks and could just shift the risk onto another part of the value chain.
Alternative approaches that link financing returns to their success in supporting the transition can help to remove the rigidity of debt and the potentially counter-productive incentives that are created for companies. Financing the transition with instruments other than debt, including through Islamic finance, can offer more flexibility to adapt to changes in the global transition, although it may introduce other challenges in today’s debt-based financial system.
ICMA sustainable sukuk guidance brings flexibility and risks for issuers with limited green assets
The International Capital Markets Association (ICMA), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and LSEG have released guidance on sustainable sukuk, reflecting the growing contribution of Islamic capital markets to the wider sustainable fixed-income market.
Through the first quarter of this year, sustainability-labelled sukuk have been dominated by core Islamic finance jurisdictions including Malaysia, Indonesia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and the IsDB, but the new guidance has been purposely developed for issuers coming from either sukuk or green bond markets to issue green, social, sustainable, transition or blue sukuk.
One of the areas on which the guidance is silent is the ESG/sustainability evaluation of the underlying asset, which is a structural difference between sukuk and bonds. The absence of guidance on ESG/sustainability screening of the underlying asset similar to what is required for the ultimate use-of-proceeds presents an area of risk that could be mitigated with clearer disclosure.
Even as it represents a risk to the sustainable credentials of the transaction if the asset's sustainability profile differs from investor expectations, it could be easily addressed with additional disclosure. This would mitigate the risks while providing flexibility for green and social sukuk where lack of green assets would otherwise create a barrier to issuers, especially in markets where a substantial share of financial assets are held by Shari'ah sensitive investors and financial institutions.
How transition finance could eclipse sustainability-linked financing
One of the consequential outcomes of COP 28 was the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels in order to reach the global climate goals of limiting warming to 1.5˚ C, which requires reaching Net Zero by 2050. After COP 28 ended there has been a widespread effort to determine the best way to achieve that transition, for which finance plays a key role.
Emerging markets need to be able to absorb much more climate finance than they do today
Following the COP 28 climate summit in Dubai, there will need to be a redoubled effort to drive finance in the direction of alignment with the transition. International private climate finance in particular will need to rise by 15 times from current levels. One of the major challenges in driving this growth is that it often relies on data to guide and assess whether financing flows are moving consistently with the Paris Agreement or inconsistently with these global objectives.
Funding Credible And Bankable Transition Finance After COP28
Following the conclusion of COP 28 last year, OIC financial institutions should now focus on how the final declaration points towards key risks and opportunities arising from climate transition risks, as well as the role they can play within the energy transition. One of the most important elements of financial institutions’ strategies across OIC countries will be the role of transition finance.
This has been a hotly debated issue, all but overlooked by binary green/not-green taxonomies. For emerging markets & developing economies it is a critical piece of amassing enough funding to be able to transform economies in a way that will over time promote economic growth while reducing emissions along science-based pathways.
OIC financial institutions need a comprehensive approach to align with COP 28 outcomes
Since the Paris Agreement was signed at COP 21, one of the most important issues has been defining how the world makes “finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-resilient development”. The global stocktake released at the end of COP 28 provides updates on the activities the financial sector will need to align in order to mitigate climate change by 2030.